Clark, J. S., S. R. Carpenter, M. Barber, S. Collins, A. Dobson,
J. Foley, D. Lodge, M. Pascual, R. Pielke, W. Pizer, C. Pringle, W. V. Reid,
K. A. Rose, O. E. Sala, W. Schlesinger, D. H. Wall, and D. Wear. 2001.
Ecological Forecasts: an Emerging Imperative. Science 293:657-660. (Abstract) |
------Planning and decision-making
can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem
services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with
progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast
ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce,
evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires
a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary
linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controls on ecosystems,
the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance
of forecasts. |